Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.082324 2.185648 2.296042 2.423649 2.568251 2.728489 2.921618
2025-10-05 2.002348 2.137668 2.288126 2.470231 2.688212 2.945793 3.281668
2025-10-12 1.964027 2.123753 2.306877 2.536869 2.825229 3.186264 3.694564
2025-10-19 1.899477 2.070886 2.271372 2.529508 2.863823 3.300589 3.953822
2025-10-26 1.853597 2.035106 2.251105 2.535411 2.914687 3.430666 4.250976
2025-11-02 1.791312 1.975057 2.196022 2.490856 2.891624 3.451480 4.379773
2025-11-09 1.750614 1.938744 2.167496 2.477197 2.906861 3.525150 4.602026
2025-11-16 1.716110 1.908001 2.143637 2.466885 2.923873 3.600232 4.837313
2025-11-23 1.683477 1.877877 2.118584 2.452517 2.932386 3.660600 5.054619
2025-11-30 1.667099 1.867161 2.117445 2.469598 2.986342 3.796760 5.449321
2025-12-07 1.618402 1.813656 2.058281 2.403166 2.910774 3.710725 5.357700
2025-12-14 1.591764 1.787512 2.034061 2.384226 2.905364 3.741563 5.527356
2025-12-21 1.558485 1.752759 1.998392 2.349128 2.875388 3.731208 5.611036
2025-12-28 1.557581 1.759401 2.017458 2.391823 2.967483 3.943233 6.293021
2026-01-04 1.563744 1.775057 2.048716 2.453040 3.093077 4.234966 7.355194
2026-01-11 1.545195 1.757536 2.033974 2.445534 3.105131 4.308817 7.805017
2026-01-18 1.532139 1.746790 2.027961 2.450364 3.137437 4.426506 8.483462
2026-01-25 1.503757 1.714986 1.991911 2.408456 3.087403 4.366249 8.439248
2026-02-01 1.486443 1.697537 1.975270 2.395232 3.085756 4.408403 8.847482
2026-02-08 1.471050 1.682263 1.961159 2.385148 3.088596 4.459848 9.336274
2026-02-15 1.455139 1.665926 1.945081 2.371335 3.083813 4.493259 9.768949
2026-02-22 1.449683 1.663393 1.948099 2.386710 3.131058 4.649485 11.033078
2026-03-01 1.419235 1.626641 1.902132 2.324661 3.036269 4.465504 10.121520